H Hunger;  Hamas; Hillary; Harper; Hurricanes Ike and Hanna; Huffington Post; healthcare; handouts (read bailouts)
A ABCPs; Afghanistan; Asia (China & India for starters); Auto-makers; AIG;  Arab world; Athens - New School of - and riots;
P President-elect Obama; Paul Newman (RIP), a gentleman who made his stardom work for others; Palin; Paulson; Policy; Petroleum
P Pirates (Somali); prorogue; Poznan; Palestine; Putin; and, puppies -presidential and others; the Press and the Pundits, without whom we would have no opinions; Ponzi (the only way we could work in Madoff);  Panarin, Igor (the Russian who predicts that the U.S. will break up in 2010); parliament; Pauls Volcker and Krugman; population
Y Youth who will inherit the mess; Yucca Mountain

N Nuclear; newspapers; Nicolas (Sarkozy); Nouriel Roubini; Nobel; NAFTA
E Economy (writ large) and economists; European Union; Energy; Environment; Emerging markets; Elections; Ecometrica
W  Water; Wall Street (encompassing a multitude of sins); Warming (as in Global); Westmount (as in local)

Y Year-end predictions
E  euro, the Economist; ecology
A Agriculture & Food; Alternative energy sources; Africa (Kenya, Zimbabwe and the DRC);  authors (especially Wednesday Nighters Cleo and Peter Brown); Arctic; Aviation & airlines; Alaska whence to view Russia;
R R2P ; real estate; Robert Rubin; re-branding (‘Bush shoes’); reasonable accommodation

Food for thought:
… No less a geopolitical chess player than Henry Kissinger believes 2009 “will mark the beginning of a new world order.”
He draws attention to the contradiction between the way global economic forces today work without regard to borders and the old-fashioned way international governance remains locked into the prerogatives of single states.A new framework for international decision-making is long overdue. Currently, the prospects for international cooperation are dimmed when bodies such as the UN Security Council, to which Canada is now seeking membership, can be routinely hamstrung by China and Russia acting as wary spoilers.
When you look around, you see that most of the big international projects are in abeyance. Competing national agendas have stalled international trade negotiations (the so-called Doha round), talks surrounding climate change and energy cooperation, and nuclear proliferation. Jeremy Kinsman “What should we expect?”
The best place to begin looking at what might be unexpected is to identify what most Washington types think is in store for us. As of right now, 2009 looks like this: deeper, messier recession worldwide, the beginning of the U.S. pullout from Iraq, worries about Pakistan and Iranian nukes, hopes that Obama can restore U.S. standing. Oh, and recently a recognition that Israel-Palestine will continue to be an open wound. But here’s five black swans that could arrive and wreak unanticipated havoc … David Rothkopf writing for Foreign Policy The failed state next door, and other black swans
Recently there has been plenty of attention given to the issue of humanitarian crisis, intervention and the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) at the global level. The R2P, which was originally articulated in 2001 by a commission created and supported by the government of Canada [One of the authors of the original R2P document was Michael Ignatieff], is designed to articulate and enforce what terms like sovereignty, human security and global responsibility actually mean and just how short the international community has fallen in its efforts to protect vulnerable populations worldwide.Global Responsibility and the Shortfall of International Policy By ROBERT W. MURRAY and DAVID KILGOUR
From the Afghanistan “surge” that’s already begun, to the global warming solution that could be making the problem worse, here are 10 big stories that never became big news—but should have. From Foreign Policy The Top Ten Stories You missed in 2008

Understanding the Gaza Catastrophe Richard Falk, United Nations Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in the Palestinian Territories
Related reading: Situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967, the report [to the UN General Assembly] of the Special Rapporteur, Richard Falk,  August 25, 2008
And here is the National Post’s Jonathan Kay on the bigtory of Richard Falk, the UN’s new anti-Israel hit man
Why Israel Feels Threatened
The foreboding has two general sources and four specific causes. The general problems are simple. First, the Arab and wider Islamic worlds, despite Israeli hopes since 1948 and notwithstanding the peace treaties signed by Egypt and Jordan in 1979 and 1994, have never truly accepted the legitimacy of Israel’s creation and continue to oppose its existence.
Second, public opinion in the West (and in democracies, governments can’t be far behind) is gradually reducing its support for Israel as the West looks askance at the Jewish state’s treatment of its Palestinian neighbors and wards. The Holocaust is increasingly becoming a faint and ineffectual memory and the Arab states are increasingly powerful and assertive.
… Between 1948 and 1982 Israel coped relatively well with the threat from conventional Arab armies. Indeed, it repeatedly trounced them. But Iran’s nuclear threat, the rise of organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah that operate from across international borders and from the midst of dense civilian populations, and Israeli Arabs’ growing disaffection with the state and their identification with its enemies, offer a completely different set of challenges.

Arab ministers hold UN Gaza talks
The meeting on Monday of the Palestinian, Egyptian and other ministers with Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general, follows a US decision to block a Libyan-backed proposal for the UN to call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza last weekend.
Hamas looks to Hezbollah’s inspiration
DAMASCUS - The similarities between what is taking place in Gaza today, and what took place in Lebanon in 2006, are striking. Both wars were waged by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) against a small military group, seen as “heroes and resistance leaders” by the Arab world, labeled as “terrorists” by Israel and the United States.

Israeli troops and tanks cut swaths through the Gaza Strip early Sunday, surrounding its biggest city and effectively cutting the territory in two, as the offensive against Hamas gained momentum. CBC
Israeli Troops Launch Attack on Gaza
JERUSALEM — Israeli tanks and troops swept across the border into Gaza on Saturday night, opening a ground war against the militant group Hamas after a week of intense airstrikes.
Pummelling the Palestinians
If the Israeli onslaught on the Islamists of Hamas silences them for a while, it could alter the odds in Israel’s coming general election
[NB Note Foreign Policy comments on elections in 2009]

Transition Purgatory
Dozens of national-security and regional experts who worked intensively as volunteers on policy teams for the Obama campaign — writing talking points, doing debate prep, checking facts, following RUMINT, and rebutting opposition attacks — have grown anxious and quiet as they await word on what jobs they might (or might not) be offered in the new administration.
4 January
Bill Richardson Withdraws Commerce Secretary Nomination
WASHINGTON — New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson on Sunday announced that he was withdrawing his nomination to be President-elect Barack Obama’s commerce secretary amid a grand jury investigation into how some of his political donors won a lucrative state contract. Richardson’s Lies Have Finally Caught Up to Him
30 December
Blagojevich Appoints Obama’s Successor
(CBS News) Embattled Illinois Gov. Names Former AG Roland Burris To Senate; Senate Democrats Vow Not To Seat Him  NYT Background
Blagojevich’s choice is already being met with a steep wave of skepticism, because the embattled Illinois Governor was caught by the feds allegedly trying to auction off the seat to the highest bidder. Burris’ ties to Blagojevich, despite his recent criticisms of the governor, seem destined to tarnish his appointment even further.  More from HuffPost
Caroline Kennedy fails to impress
Ms Kennedy… broke weeks of silence on her bid, by giving a series of interviews at the weekend [and] was criticised for being unknowledgeable on key policy areas, being unable to articulate why she was seeking public office for the first time - and even for possessing a verbal tic.
26 December
‘Fair’ Traders Are Perplexed By Obama’s Pick For USTR
President-elect Barack Obama’s selection of former Dallas, Texas, mayor Ron Kirk as his United States Trade Representative has thrown the fair trade community for a loop. Kirk, a lawyer with the respected Houston firm of Vinson & Elkins, has been a supporter of the NAFTA superhighway and of free trade, both of which have been held in low regard of late among recently elected populist Democrats in Congress, and even among some Republicans. Former Dallas Mayor Picked as New USTR: Ron Kirk is called pro-business and ”a gifted negotiator who focused on trade with Canada and Mexico.” Bloomberg story
24 December
Is a New Food Policy on Obama’s List?
Last week, Mr. Obama appointed [as Secretary of Agriculture] Tom Vilsack, the former governor of Iowa, which grows much of the nation’s corn and soybeans. Mr. Vilsack has talked about reducing subsidies to some megafarms, supports better treatment of farm animals and wants healthier food in schools. But his selection drew criticism because he is a big fan of alternative fuels like corn-based ethanol and is a supporter of biotechnology, both anathema to people who want to shift government support from large-scale agricultural interests to smaller farms growing food that takes a more direct path to the table.
19 December
Duncan can provide change we need
(Chicago Tribune) President-elect Obama has chosen Chicago Public Schools Superintendent and CEO Arne Duncan as his nominee for secretary of education. Mr. Duncan has been a passionate advocate for improving education in Chicago. One reason for Duncan’s selection, highlighted by Mr. Obama, is his support for charter public schools. As a state senator, Obama helped pass a law to double the number of charter public schools in Chicago; and as a United States Senator, Obama advocated for the opening of the country’s first charter public high school for boys. He has also proposed doubling federal support for such charters across the nation.
In Clinton [Donors] List, a Veil Is Lifted on Foundation
With his wife now poised to take over as America’s top diplomat, Mr. Clinton’s fund-raising is coming under new scrutiny for relationships that could pose potential conflict-of-interest issues for Mrs. Clinton in her job. Some of her husband’s biggest backers have much at stake in the policies that President-elect Barack Obama’s incoming administration adopts toward their regions or business ventures.
18 December
Problems for a “Team of Rivals”
By David T. Jones
(The Metropolitain) Washington DC - Washington media has much bruited about the concept of a “team of rivals” for the Obama administration. The label derives from the Doris Kearns Goodwin book of the same name regarding Abraham Lincoln’s assembly of a Civil War cabinet incorporating his political rivals, who individually and corporately believed themselves far better qualified than he to lead the country under any circumstances, let alone during a civil war.
Obama Names Three to Top Economic Posts
(NYT) President-elect Barack Obama on Thursday nominated three veteran financial regulators to top economic positions in his administration.
Obama picks new head of SEC, considers shakeup
(Reuters) By naming his pick at this time for the SEC job — which is not part of the Cabinet — Obama is signaling an interest in restoring the agency’s stature.
Obama has called for a broad changes in Wall Street regulations to prevent future crises and has said the structure of regulatory agencies is among the issues that should be considered.
15 December
Caroline Kennedy to Seek Clinton’s Senate Seat
Mrs. Clinton has said that she would not vacate the Senate seat until she was confirmed as President-elect Barack Obama’s secretary of state, which is expected to occur in January or February, and the governor has said that he would wait until then to make the appointment. But he has also said that he might make his selection known before then, to allow whomever is chosen to prepare for the new role.
11 December
Obama takes scandal in his stride
8 December
Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich Arrested In Obama Successor Probe HuffPost; United States Attorney Patrick J. Fitzgerald returned to the national spotlight today when he stepped to a scrum of microphones to announce the arrest of Mr. Blagojevich NYT ; The Gov certainly had chutzpah: Alleged: Blago Hoped To Shake Down Warren Buffett!
Rewarding Those Who Got It Right
(Ariana Huffington) Over the weekend, Barack Obama made an encouraging move … by appointing retired General Eric Shinseki to be the Secretary of Veterans Affairs. While having had a long and distinguished career, Shinseki is most famous for getting it right when it came to Iraq - and for suffering the consequences typical in the Bush administration for getting it right: being shown the door.
7 December
Obama to focus on stimulus not deficit
(FT) Barack Obama on Sunday spelled out his plans for the biggest infrastructure investment in the US for half a century. The president-elect argued that with the economy reeling, his incoming administration could not afford to worry about a spiralling budget deficit.
Mr Obama’s proposals for government works on roads, bridges, internet broadband and school buildings, together with energy efficiency measures and health spending, are far more detailed than the normal announcements during a time of transition.
Obama Pledges Public Works on a Vast Scale
A big part of that will be public works spending. “We will create millions of jobs by making the single largest new investment in our national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s,” Mr. Obama said. He did not estimate how much he would devote to that purpose, but when he met with the nation’s governors last week, they said the states had $136 billion worth of road, bridge, water and other projects ready to go as soon as money became available. They estimated that each billion dollars spent would create up to 40,000 jobs.
Energy efficiency high on Obama stimulus plan
President-elect Barack Obama on Saturday said that building energy efficiency is central to his administration’s economic recovery plan and outlined the conditions he intends to impose on ailing U.S. automakers.
The Brightest Are Not Always the Best
… it’s the economic team that evokes trace memories of our dark best-and-brightest past.
Summers and Geithner are both protégés of another master of the universe, Robert Rubin. Ever since his acclaimed service as Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, Rubin has labored as a senior adviser and director at Citigroup, now being bailed out by taxpayers to the potential tune of some $300 billion. Somehow the all-seeing Rubin didn’t notice the toxic mortgage-derivatives on Citi’s books until it was too late. The Citi may never sleep, but he snored.
4 December
In case it wasn’t already clear that Barack Obama is going to have a lot to deal with when he takes office, the Government Accountability Office, Congress’s investigative agency, has released a list of 13 urgent issues for him and the next Congress.
If  only the Canadian parliamentary system allowed the PM to reach out to the very best and brightest! Issues Pressing, Obama Fills Top Posts at a Sprint
Mr. Obama is moving more quickly to fill his administration’s top ranks than any newly elected president in modern times. He has named virtually the entire top echelon of his White House staff and nearly half of his cabinet. Just a month after his election, Mr. Obama has announced his selections for 13 of the 24 most important positions in a new administration.
3 December
In Banking, Emanuel Made Money and Connections
Mr. Emanuel turned out to be an effective banker, proving a quick study with financial concepts, even as he relied on others in his office for heavy number crunching, former colleagues said. He worked 12-hour days and was known among clients for his relentlessness, constantly on the phone or sending e-mail, and being unafraid to pitch deals. Revenue in Wasserstein’s Chicago office climbed significantly after his arrival.
Obama team signals foreign policy shift: Although Defense Secretary Robert Gates is staying on, the nomination of onetime rival Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., as secretary of state and James Jones, a former NATO commander, as national security adviser suggest that the administration of Barack Obama will focus more on diplomacy, foreign aid and and maintaining relations with multilateral institutions than has U.S. President George W. Bush. The New York Times (12/1)  TIME profile of Susan Rice (12/3)
Hillary Clinton joins Obama’s team of rivals
(Newsweek) Hillary Clinton becomes part of the team, but is she a team player?
Susan Rice named U.S. ambassador to UN
U.S. President-elect Barack Obama appointed longtime aide Susan Rice to the post of U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations on Monday and will reinstate the position as a Cabinet-level post. At 44, Rice would be the second-youngest person in U.S. history to hold the position. Rice, who was assistant secretary of state for African affairs under President Bill Clinton, is known as an advocate of strong intervention to stop genocide as it is occurring. The New York Times (12/1)
30 November
Bush Aides Rush to Enact a Safety Rule Obama Opposes
WASHINGTON — The Labor Department is racing to complete a new rule, strenuously opposed by President-elect Barack Obama, that would make it much harder for the government to regulate toxic substances and hazardous chemicals to which workers are exposed on the job.
29 November
National Security Pick: General James L. Jones
Mr. Obama is expected to announce his national security team on Monday in Chicago, with Mr. Gates at the Pentagon, Mrs. Clinton at the State Department, General Jones at the White House and possibly Adm. Dennis C. Blair, who is retired, as director of national intelligence. What is notable is that none of them have a long history with Mr. Obama, and none are known to be particularly close to him. General Jones will … be expected to mediate between rivals, particularly in dealing with Mr. Gates, who has his own power base at the Pentagon, and with Mrs. Clinton, who has told friends that she does not expect the national security adviser to stand between her and the president.
28 November
Mumbai bombings will test the mettle of U.S. president-elect
Some terrorists want to make a statement during this period of transition in American politics.
26 November
Obama’s Shrewd Choices
By Joe Conason
His appointees will implement the Obama program, not only because that is what he tells them to do but because that is what they have come to believe is best for the country. Whatever Summers or Geithner or any of the other centrists on the new team may once have said or thought, they will pursue a course of massive counter-cyclical spending, public investment and strong new regulation.
Obama Picks Volcker to Head New Economic Panel
(NYT) Paul Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, has agreed to lead a new White House economic advisory committee, President-elect Barack Obama said. Austan Goolsbee, a University of Chicago economist who was a leading economic adviser to the Obama presidential campaign, will lead the staff of the advisory board.
Obama’s Wall Street Woes
(HuffPost) So much for perfect timing. Barack Obama presented his economic team — Summers, Geithner, Orzag — all protégés of Robert Rubin — just as the Treasury Department was pumping out billions to rescue Citibank — which featured Rubin as chair of its executive committee — from collapse. Is this the change we need? The depth of the crisis we face renders the old arguments irrelevant. Under Bill Clinton, Rubin championed reducing budget deficits, deregulating finance, and opening foreign markets to private investment. Now deficit spending must go up, banks must be re-regulated, trade imbalances must be reduced and manufacturing can no longer be scorned. Click here to read more.
25 November
Obama Unveils Team to Tackle ‘Historic’ Crisis
(NYT) By naming a team deeply experienced in dealing with financial crises — Mr. Geithner was heavily involved over the weekend in the efforts to stabilize Citigroup — Mr. Obama underscored his determination to assure Americans and foreign investors that he would aggressively step into a leadership vacuum in Washington during the transition.
We agree with all of Andrew Cohen’s points and are mystified by the choice of Hillary Clinton. Presumably, we will have to wait for the memoirs and history books to explain Mr. Ohama’s decision.
Andrew Cohen: Clinton’s moment
It is expected that Mr. Obama will appoint Mrs. Clinton secretary of state. This is the most prestigious position in the cabinet, the face of America to the world. On the surface, the move is brilliant.
For Mr. Obama, Mrs. Clinton and the country, it’s a mistake.
Cosmopolitan and intelligent as she is, Mrs. Clinton does not come from diplomacy, the academy, military, the bureaucracy or the cabinet, which have produced almost all postwar secretaries of state. Dean Acheson, George C. Marshall, John Foster Dulles, Dean Rusk, Henry Kissinger, Cyrus Vance, James Baker, Warren Christopher and Colin Powell all brought far more expertise to the job than she does.
23 November
David Brooks is positively burbling over the Obama team:
…more impressive than any other in recent memory. One may not agree with them on everything or even most things, but a few things are indisputably true.
First, these are open-minded individuals who are persuadable by evidence.
Second, they are admired professionals.
Third, they are not excessively partisan.
Fourth, they are not ideological.
22 November
Richardson at Commerce, Summers as economic adviser
Democratic sources report two major decisions by President-elect Obama: New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) will be named secretary of Commerce, subject to final vetting. And Lawrence Summers, Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, will be White House economic adviser.
21 November
Sic Transit: The Honeymoon is Looking a Bit Wan, By Alexander Cockburn
(Counterpunch) … the cabinet members Obama has announced or who are being bandied about are not inspiring. They’re dull like former Democratic senator Tom Daschle getting Health and Human Services. Howard Dean, who was a doctor and who had hands-on time grappling with health insirance when he was governor of Vermont, would have been a much better choice. Janet Napolitano, the Arizona governor slated to be head of Homeland Security, horrified labor organizers at one meeting earlier this year listening to her boasting about kicking migrant workers back into Mexico. One nominee headed towards a Republican roasting in his hearings is Eric Holder, named to be Attorney General. As number 2 in Clinton’s Justice Department, Holder played a grimy role in one of the most scandalous affairs of Clinton-time, the last minute pardon by Clinton of billionaire trader and denizen of the FBI’s most wanted list, Marc Rich.
Tim Geithner, Treasury Secretary: Barack Obama will name his Treasury Secretary on Monday, a Democratic source confirms…. NBC reports: Former Treasury Secretary Summers — also considered for the post — might still play a major future role in the Obama administration, according to sources …. Paul Volcker is expected to play a continuing advisory role — not clear if he would have an appointed position.
(Reuters) Commentators called on President-elect Barack Obama to signal more forcefully the economic policy he would enact upon taking over from George W. Bush on January 20. They expressed concern the economy might deteriorate further, as it did during the transition from Herbert Hoover to Franklin Roosevelt in 1932 and 1933.
Nobel laureate economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman called the stretch between the 1932 election and the actual transfer of power disastrous for the U.S. economy in part because “the outgoing administration had no credibility (and) the incoming administration had no authority.” [The lame-duck economy]
WASHINGTON — Representative Henry A. Waxman wrested the chairmanship of the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee from Representative John D. Dingell on Thursday in a coup that is expected to accelerate passage of energy, climate and health legislation backed by President-elect Barack Obama. The ouster of Mr. Dingell, of Michigan, was another blow to the reeling American auto industry, which learned Thursday that it would not get any financial assistance from Congress until it showed how it could be profitable again. Mr. Dingell, who represents a suburban Detroit district, has been the industry’s most stalwart defender in Congress, having slowed or blocked many safety and environmental standards that the auto companies argued they could not meet. More
Hillary’s quest for her ‘legacy’ job hits trouble
Fears that Clinton as Secretary of State would create rival centre of power to challenge Obama
… The sticking point in the negotiations is the ethical review of former President Clinton’s most confidential dealings.
20 November
Obama’s Pick of Daschle May Test Conflict-of-Interest Pledge
At issue is Mr. Daschle’s work since leaving the Senate four years ago as a board member of the Mayo Clinic and a highly paid adviser to health care clients at the law and lobbying firm Alston & Bird. The Economist, however, applauds the choice ’shrewd choice’ of Daschle.
18 November
Clinton insiders say that, contrary to other reports, Bill’s dealings are not the only roadblock to Hillary’s Cabinet post. The Senator herself is undecided:
Press reports that portray Clinton as willing to accept the job - once the Obama transition team vets Bill Clinton’s philanthropic and business ventures - are inaccurate, one Clinton insider told Politico.
Clinton, the person said, remains deeply “torn” between the possibility of serving in Obama’s cabinet and remaining in the Senate to “help pass health care and work on a broad range of domestic issues.” More
17 November
Obama meets McCain
WASHINGTON — President-elect Barack Obama and Senator John McCain agreed on Monday, in their first meeting since the election, to work together on some of the nation’s most pressing challenges, from the financial crisis to national security problems.
The president-elect and the Arizona senator hold relatively similar views on issues like climate change and ethics reform, where cooperation might be fruitful. More urgently, Mr. Obama may be hoping for help in pushing for a new economic stimulus package that faces stiff Republican resistance.
Sam Stein is in favour of Hillary as Sec State:
Clinton Aides Comfortable With Bill’s Vetting, Worried About Press , but we tend to agree with Ken Silverstein’s Five Reasons Hillary Clinton Should Not Be Secretary of State, especially the “Look who’s endorsing her” line.
This is interesting conjecture
(NYT) This morning, New York Governor David Paterson made clear that if Senator Clinton vacates the [Senate] seat, he will not appoint himself to her job. … Among the names that have been raised are two Kennedys: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (whose father once represented New York in the Senate), and Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg; Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. More
14 November
(FP Morning Brief) Hillary Clinton is reportedly emerging as a serious contender to become secretary of state. [the pros and cons] CNN says that, as of yesterday evening, the transition team had not contacted her about taking the position. Defense insiders expect President-elect Obama to make Richard Danzig his defense secretary, according to the the Army Times. Politico reports that Larry Summers may be off the short list for Treasury secretary.
13 November
The transition to Barack Obama’s new administration is already well under way
Mr Obama is bringing the same talent for organisation to the transition that he brought to his campaign. He has been quietly planning since the summer with John Podesta, a former White House chief of staff to Bill Clinton and the head of a Clintonian think-tank, the Centre for American Progress, studying previous transitions and mulling over appointments. And he announced an expanded transition team the day after winning the election, adding Valerie Jarrett, a veteran Chicago insider, and Pete Rouse, his chief of staff in the Senate. So far the troika’s approach has been thoroughly businesslike, with remarkably few leaks (particularly for Democrats) and a firm focus on getting things done quickly but not hastily. Mr Podesta has suggested that, given the gravity of the country’s problems, Mr Obama will try to announce several cabinet appointments, particularly the treasury secretary and the national security team, before December. But rumours that he would do so within days of the election proved to be exaggerated.
… Mr Obama’s choice of his chief of staff is smart. Mr Emanuel has a remarkable combination of experience in both the executive and the legislative branch: he was an adviser to Mr Clinton as well as the mastermind behind the Democratic takeover of Congress in 2006. He is also a hard-ass—an expletive-spouting dynamo who can keep the trains running on time and malcontents cowering in their caves (he is nicknamed “Rahmbo”, and he once sent a dead fish to somebody who crossed him).
The Republicans immediately objected that Mr Emanuel’s appointment undermined Mr Obama’s promise to bring a new kind of politics to Washington. But Mr Emanuel’s main job will be to keep his former colleagues on the Hill in line, not to worry about the opposition. He is a Clintonian centrist who has championed welfare reform, free trade and even a slightly flatter tax code. He has been close to his fellow Chicago pol for years. And he is the ideal bad cop to Mr Obama’s good cop.

December 26, 2008
Sticking with the model that is driving us toward ecological catastrophe will eventually kill us
Peter G. Brown and Geoffrey Garver

(The Star) Amid the discordant clash of solutions being served up to address the global financial crisis, a common refrain can be heard: Most global leaders and their economic advisers key their policy prescriptions to “sustained economic growth.” The prevailing debate is how to get there most quickly. In Canada, how this debate plays out could bring down the government in a matter of weeks.

Unfortunately, it is the wrong debate. Neither the Conservative minority nor the opposition has proposed anything that will set Canada on a long-term path toward the kind of economy that will both provide for the well-being of Canadians and enhance and preserve the ecological community of which people are but one dependent part.

All eyes may now be on the kind of fiscal budget the Conservatives might produce next year, but a more essential budget also demands urgent attention: the global ecological budget. The financial crisis has brought into sharp focus the need to fundamentally change, not merely repair or rebuild, our economy. Because, quite simply, sticking with an economic model that is driving toward ecological catastrophe will kill us. So, it is essential to address the financial and ecological crises together.

The ecological budget, on which all life and, consequently, the human economy depends, is already in dramatic deficit. Why is this budget ultimately more important than the fiscal budget? Sept. 23, 2008, was Earth Overshoot Day. The period after Sept. 23 represents the time the human population causes an ecological deficit, using up the Earth faster than it can regenerate.

Every year, Earth Overshoot Day comes earlier. This moving date tells the story of a global environment rapidly losing its ability to support life: accelerating climate change; the loss of species and habitats; declining fisheries; the proliferation of ocean dead zones; diminishing freshwater resources; and more. Ecological overshoot is climate change on steroids.

Here are six steps we can take toward a truly balanced budget that will allow Canadians, and all people on Earth, to live fulfilling, healthy, yet more ecologically compatible, lives.

• Recognize that the economy is part of the biosphere. A comprehensive economic plan must be based on the scientific fact that the global economy is a subsidiary of the natural order. Economic policies should be attuned to the limited capacity of Earth’s biosphere to provide for humans and other life and to assimilate their waste. Photosynthesis and sunlight are as essential to the framework for economic budgets and expenditures as the laws of supply and demand.
• Acknowledge that we need new institutions. An economic renewal tailored to the 21st century would establish institutions committed to fitting the human economy to Earth’s limited life-support capacity. Canada, with its token efforts to address climate change, is far off the track. We need something like the central reserve banks, but which look after shares of the Earth’s ecological capacity, not just interest rates and the money supply. Money should be recognized as a social licence to use part of Earth’s life-support capacity. Some functions of governance would have to operate at a global level, through a federation modelled perhaps on the European Union, with enforceable laws designed to assure that individual nations don’t overrun Earth’s limits. The rules for the developed countries that are responsible for the current ecological crisis should be different from those for developing ones.
• Acknowledge that unlimited growth on a finite planet makes no sense. Most people wrongly believe that unlimited growth and wealth accumulation are the “natural laws” of the economy – inviolable, even though together they undermine the Earth’s ecological and social systems. We face a moral challenge: bring the global economy into a right relationship with the planet and its human and non-human inhabitants or suffer the increasing destruction of Earth’s finite life-support systems and social structures. Growth in consumption is a nonsensical response to the sharp decline in Earth’s biophysical systems that is caused by overconsumption. Our new ecological and climate reality demands new ways to live within the means of the Earth.
• Fairness matters. A “right” human-Earth relationship would recognize humans as part of an interdependent web of life on a finite planet. The economy must recognize the rights of the human poor and of millions of other species to their place in the sun. In a world awash in money, addressing poverty only with growth reflects a tragic lack of moral imagination. Indeed, in pushing for more “free” trade as it is currently understood, Canada would entrench an ongoing addiction to consumption, pursued in a manner that often ravages the bio-productivity of developing countries.
• Expand the discussion. The new knowledge that will forever mark this period in human history is the overwhelming scientific evidence that we are overconsuming the planet and accelerating toward ecological catastrophe. The short-term approaches of most ministers of finance and professional economists don’t account for how the planet works, or even that the economy exists on a finite planet. Scientists morally committed to protecting the global commons and researching ecological limits to the global economy need much more funding and influence in policy-making.
• Look beyond technological fixes. Bold new leadership is needed that will focus on all four policy “theatres” relevant to human ecological impact and provide the moral footing that will lead people, individually and collectively, to choose lifestyles with radically lower impact. The four policy variables are: technology; population; wealth and consumption; and morals and customs. These factors should together shape Parliament’s rethinking of the current economic system. Technology can increase efficiency of energy and resources use, yet it is overemphasized as a solution. Pushing technological solutions like hydrogen cars and genetically modified agriculture is much easier politically than asking people to consume less or have fewer children. Unfortunately, technology alone cannot solve the ecological crisis. For one thing, efficiency gains often lead to greater, not lower, consumption. An example is the squandering of Quebec’s underpriced hydroelectric power.

Investments in new “green” technology need to be coupled to a regulatory structure that ensures that efficiency does not result in more impact, along with massive investment in creating or restoring natural systems that build bioproductivity. Economic policy must promote not more affluence as currently defined, but more sufficiency for all Canadians – so that all may live with self-respect, without overconsumption.

Perhaps most difficult to come to grips with is that Canada is an overpopulated country – if you compare the individual impact of each Canadian with what the Earth can withstand. We should escape from the current treadmill that considers more people necessary for more growth.

Lastly, we must greatly increase investment in educational and civic institutions that teach that we are not “consumers,” but citizens of the Earth, and guardians of life’s prospect on a small, beautiful and finite planet.
Peter G. Brown is a professor at McGill University. Geoffrey Garver is an environmental consultant and lectures in law at Université de Montréal and Université Laval. They are co-authors of Right Relationship: Building a Whole Earth Economy.

Getty Images

24 October 2008
Nuclear Power May Be in Early Stages of a Revival
(NYT) WASHINGTON — After three decades without starting a single new plant, the American nuclear power industry is getting ready to build again.
When the industry first said several years ago that it would resume building plants, deep skepticism greeted the claim. Not since 1973 had anybody in the United States ordered a nuclear plant that was actually built, and the obstacles to a new generation of plants seemed daunting.
But now, according to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 21 companies say they will seek permission to build 34 power plants, from New York to Texas. Factories are springing up in Indiana and Louisiana to build reactor parts. Workers are clearing a site in Georgia to put in reactors. Starting in January, millions of electric customers in Florida will be billed several dollars a month to finance four new reactors.
25 July
The news from France may discourage some nuclear proponents, more likely the many who are wavering.
Too Many French Nuclear Workers Contaminated
The Independent Commission on Research and Information on Radioactivity (CRIIRAD) also said a growing number of French nuclear workers were complaining about worsening working conditions and their likely impact on safety.
11 July
The Inexorable Comeback of Nuclear Energy
(Spiegel Online) Oil prices are sky high. Greenhouse gases are driving up temperatures around the world. And many are now looking to nuclear power as the possible solution. Dozens of new reactors are under construction, but in Germany the subject remains taboo — for now.
… Despite a decade of massive investment and generous programs established to promote wind, solar and biomass power generation, green energy sources make up just 14 percent of the country’s energy supply. Even if that were to double in the near future, the lion’s share of Germany’s energy consumption would have to come from elsewhere. Without nuclear power, “elsewhere” in Germany necessarily means coal-fired power plants. But in a world with a rapidly warming climate caused by massive emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere by, among other sources, coal-fired power plants, such a scenario is decidedly unappetizing.
July 9
‘The American Public Is Ready for Nuclear’
David Crane is CEO of NRG Energy, Inc, based in New Jersey. His company is planning to build two new nuclear reactors in Texas, the first such project in almost 30 years in the US. SPIEGEL ONLINE spoke to him about the worldwide nuclear renaissance.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Republican presidential candidate John McCain has proposed building 45 new nuclear reactors by 2030 with a longer term goal of 55 more. His Democratic opponent, Barack Obama, is also in favor of more atomic energy. Is the US experiencing a nuclear power renaissance?
David Crane: It’s still in the early stages. Clearly, the defining incident when it comes to the acceptance of nuclear energy in Europe was Chernobyl in 1986. But in this country, it was Three Mile Island near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, which was seven years earlier than Chernobyl and a much less serious incident. You basically have to be 45 or 50 years old in the US to remember Three Mile Island.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: You mean to say that people are beginning to forget about the dangers of nuclear power?
Crane: There is a perception that the American public is ready for nuclear. It’s a combination of things, and one of them is generational change. The overriding concern in this country, just like in Europe, is global warming. The recognition by most pragmatic people is that nuclear is the only advanced technology that exists to replace coal-fired power plants on a significant scale. This has jump-started the renaissance.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Couldn’t one achieve just as much by conserving energy and improving the efficiency of conventional power plants as well as by improving the efficiency of automobiles and buildings? There seems to be quite a bit of potential for that kind of thing in the US.
Crane: That’s what I call the “Gore Approach.” It’s based on self-denial: Let’s all go back to living without air conditioning and to drying our clothes on the clothes line. There’s another option, though: the “Schwarzenegger Approach.” It’s the American Dream, but it’s the carbon-free American Dream.

For every eCard sent, Care2 makes a donation to an environmental nonprofit to save a square foot of rainforest.

NOTA BENE
Wednesday Nights are never cancelled.
On New Year’s Eve (Wednesday Night #1400), in deference to the many celebrations across town and the nation, we will open the doors (figuratively) at 7pm.

DID YOU KNOW?
In 1582, the Gregorian calendar reform restored January 1 as new year’s day. Although most Catholic countries adopted the Gregorian calendar almost immediately, it was only gradually adopted among Protestant countries. The British, for example, did not adopt the reformed calendar until 1752. Until then, the British Empire, and their American colonies, still celebrated the new year in March. So maybe we should revert to celebrating at the next solstice, when perhaps we will have more to celebrate?

In any event, now is the traditional time to take stock, look back over the year, recognize the many happy events that we have enjoyed or celebrated, the less happy ones from which we have gained strength or knowledge, and the wisdom, laughter and support that we have shared with the Wednesday Night family.

Despite the onslaught of bad news, both financial and political -we will reserve our year-end roundup for next week - we remain hopeful that the New Year will bring some sanity and good governance to the planet, that a tyrant or two will be toppled (Zimbabwe is our first choice), and that politicians everywhere will assume some responsibility for reversing the damage mankind has caused to the only Earth we have.

On that note, once again, we send you and yours fondest wishes for the Best and Brightest of New Years, wherever you may be.

Stand firm, Mr Obama, China is a paper tiger
(Times Online) the reality is that China is a poor agricultural country. It may have the world’s fourth biggest economy but its population of 1.3 billion means that in terms of wealth per capita it does not even rank in the top 100 nations. China’s rivers and lakes are ruined. Its air is poisonous. The one-child policy means that by mid-century it will face a crisis as fewer workers support more than 300m old people. The leadership is stale, the party split by factions and the armed forces are untested except by repression. This is not the next superpower. It is a paper tiger.
The world crisis means that the Communist party’s economic miracle – if it ever deserved the term – is fading. Founded on cheap exports to credit-junkie American consumers, it is in deep trouble. Party officials are trying to reverse a stock market crash, a property slump and thousands of factory closures. The security forces are trying to suppress myriad worker protests against layoffs and unpaid wages.
Sporadic, incoherent yet unmistakable, a new China is coming to life online and on the street, liberating itself by stealth from the “new China” falsely proclaimed by Mao Tse-tung in 1949. That regime is now old China. How will Obama deal with this transformation? Will his China policy be one of continuity or of change?
China’s wealth gap inhibits rural growth
A UN Development Programme report shows the massive gulf dividing poor and rich is slowing growth in China and that income disparity, falling mostly along a rural/urban divide, tracks with disparity in social welfare, education and elderly care. China has made dramatic gains for its citizens in terms of health and life expectancy, but these gains have largely clustered around China’s large urban centers. The Guardian (London) (11/17) 
20 October
Growth slows in China, as the global economic slump takes its toll
(The Economist) Perhaps it should not be considered surprising. On Monday October 20th China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced that economic growth in the third quarter was 9% year-on-year, heady by American or European standards, but down from 10.1% in the previous three months (which itself was lower than the quarter before that), and the worst overall since early 2003. Consensus predictions had been for a more modest decline amid fading hope that China’s economy was fundamentally “decoupled” from the West.
It is growing harder to say that China is relatively immune from global financial and economic problems. This month alone, two big companies, Smart Union Group, a toymaker, and FerroChina, a steel producer, have gone into liquidation. For the rare company whose closing receives publicity, thousands, if not tens of thousands, shut without a sound. Early this year, southern China suffered from shortages of workers and shoe factories were discouraging orders of boots or any other product that required lots of work and materials. All of that has now reversed. There is a surplus of workers and an absence of orders, with no sign of any recovery. (BBC) Chinese economy growth rate slows
Foreign Affairs, July/August 2008
China and the Collapse of Doha
In the past, China played a secondary role in international trade negotiations. Now, it is actively challenging the fundamental rules of the global trading system. In an update to his July/August 2008 article, “A Partnership of Equals,” C. Fred Bergsten argues that China was largely responsible for the collapse of the Doha Round of trade talks in July. Doha’s failure will have grave consequences for the United States, the developing world, and for China itself.
A Partnership of Equals
How Washington Should Respond to China’s Economic Challenge
Summary:  Beijing is shirking its responsibilities to the global economy. To encourage better behavior, Washington should offer to share global economic leadership.
Update August 27
On issues ranging from exchange rates to energy policy, foreign aid, and the multilateral trading system, China’s actions over the past few years have challenged some of the most fundamental norms and rules of the existing global order.
China’s key role in torpedoing the Doha Round of global trade negotiations in July is the latest, and a critically important, case in point. China has a huge national interest in maintaining the global trading system and enhancing its effectiveness; this system has played a crucial role in facilitating China’s breathtaking growth. The widespread rise of anti-China protectionism in the United States and Europe (not to mention many developing countries) could choke off China’s exports and sharply curb its growth. The erosion of the global trading system would cause major problems for China and damage the world economy.
August 7
(The Economist) The state of the economy, though not yet as clear a challenge … is worrying China’s leaders too. They have long been trying to prevent it from growing too fast, but now they fear that growth is slowing and may slow further. National income grew by 10.1% in the year to the second quarter, compared with 10.6% in the year to the first quarter and 11.2% to the last quarter of 2007 (see chart).

Exporters are anxious. Much of the fall results from a big decline in net exports. Reasons for this include an appreciating yuan, cuts in export-tax rebates and recession or slowdown in China’s main export markets. Manufacturers of low value-added export goods such as clothes and textiles, which employ millions of workers, are among the hardest hit. The state-controlled media have reported many closures of small and medium-sized businesses in coastal areas. Chinese leaders, previously more eager to nurture high-tech industries, toured textile factories last month in a show of political support.
Later in July, a meeting of the ruling Politburo signalled a policy shift. The formerly oft-repeated injunction to prevent overheating was dropped. Instead the leadership decided to focus on maintaining “steady and fast” economic growth, though it said it would continue its efforts to combat inflation.
Since the meeting there have been moves to placate exporters, such as easing controls on lending to small and medium businesses. Officials are relieved that the rise in the consumer-price index has slowed from a 12-year high of 8.7% in February to 7.1% in June, thanks partly to a decline in meat prices. But growth-boosting measures risk fuelling inflation. Wholesale prices are rising ominously fast, and big increases in state-controlled fuel prices have raised fears of worse to come.
Continued high growth would be good news for the middle classes—a constituency regarded by the party as vital to its grip on power. The past few months have been testing times for them. Contrary to widely held expectations that the stockmarket would keep on booming until the games, valuations have plummeted since their peak last October. A side-effect of this has been the shift of some small investors’ money into other risky ventures. In early July the founder of a company involved in commodities-futures trading allegedly fled to America with millions of dollars of customers’ money. Angry investors gathered at its headquarters in Beijing to the consternation of officials anxious to ensure a trouble-free Olympics.
There are growing worries too in some parts of China about the once seemingly irrepressible property market. Officials from the National Bureau of Statistics quoted by the state-controlled media this week said huge profits reaped by many in this sector over the past decade had come to an end. In Beijing residential apartments sales (measured by floor space) fell almost 50% in the first half of the year compared with the same period a year ago.
Chinese leaders can console themselves with the thought that the country as a whole is unlikely to suffer the problem endured by some previous Olympic hosts: a post-games downturn brought on by a sudden drop in investment and consumption. Beijing’s economy accounts for less than 5% of China’s GDP. But President Hu Jintao, at a rare press conference a week before the games, spoke of “greater challenges and problems” confronting China’s economy as a result of global uncertainty. It has already begun to feel them.

Pakistan cagey about apparent capture of Kashkar-e-Taiba leader Zaki-ur Rehman Lakhvi
Pakistani military and government officials offered terse, contradictory statements as to whether Zaki-ur Rehman Lakhvi  had been captured. Pakistan was not ambiguous, however, about its plans for the militants: Officials are refusing to turn them over to India for prosecution. Los Angeles Times (free registration) (12/9) , BBC (12/9)
8 December
(Foreign Policy) Pakistan arrested Zakiur ur-Rehman Lakhvi, operational leader of the militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba, in connection with last week’s Mumbai attack. Pakistani security forces raided a camp used by the group yesterday.
The New York Times reports on the connections between LeT and Pakistani intelligence.
3 December
India terrorism by the numbers
A long history of terrorism in India precedes the recent coordinated attacks in Mumbai. The Global Terrorism Database (GTD), maintained at the University of Maryland by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism counts more than 4,100 terrorist attacks in India since 1970. Fatalities number in the thousands. This information is freely available online. The GTD is the most comprehensive and detailed open-source terrorism database available.
2 December
(BBC) The US warned India about a possible threat at least a month before last week’s Mumbai attacks, US media have quoted unnamed officials as saying.
ABC News quoted Indian officials as saying that after receiving the US warning, they also intercepted a satellite phone message on 18 November warning of a seaborne attack on Mumbai.
The city had been on high alert but security measures at the attacked hotels had recently been relaxed, the network reported.
ABC also reported that the Indian authorities had seized a mobile phone SIM card belonging to the attackers, which they said had led to a “treasure trove” of contacts and information. More
1 December
US urges Pakistan to assist Mumbai probe
(FT) The US put strong pressure on the Pakistani government to give “absolute and total” co-operation to India in the hunt for the perpetrators of the Mumbai attacks
Mumbai 11/27: the Pakistan army’s alibi
Those who planned the Mumbai attacks to create an alibi for their refusal to take out al-Qaida in the tribal regions will be disappointed. This time India will not fall into the trap laid by the Pakistan military by sending additional troops to the border and creating war hysteria that would divert attention away from the ongoing campaign against al-Qaida.
Mumbai attacks ‘were a ploy to wreck Obama plan to isolate al-Qaeda’
(Times online) Relations between India and Pakistan were on a knife edge last night amid fears that Delhi’s response to the Mumbai attacks could undermine the Pakistani army’s campaign against Islamic militants on the frontier with Afghanistan.
Officials and analysts in the region believe that last week’s atrocities were designed to provoke a crisis, or even a war, between the nuclear-armed neighbours, diverting Islamabad’s attention from extremism in tribal areas bordering Afghanistan and thus relieving pressure on al-Qaeda, Taleban and other militants based there.The carnage may have been an attempt to put Pakistan and India at each other’s throats and kill US hopes for the region.
Strange storm brews in South Asia
(Asia Times Online) Washington is trying to cool tempers and avoid an eyeball to-eyeball confrontation between India and Pakistan in the wake of last week’s terror attack in Mumbai - even as both the nuclear-armed adversaries race to get the United States on their respective good side. China, Israel and others are watching the emergence of a new South Asian power equation from the wings, but the US is a full-fledged participant, thanks to the war in Afghanistan, which is critically poised.
India makes protest to Pakistan
Following the attacks, the focus is on the lone gunman who survived and who is now in police custody. According to Indian media reports, Azam Amir Qasab is from Pakistan and linked to the Pakistan-based Kashmiri militant group, Lashkar-e-Toiba, or Army of the Pure. The group denies involvement.
India’s Deputy Home Minister, Shakeel Ahmad, told the BBC it was “very clearly established” that all the attackers had been from Pakistan - echoing similar comments from other officials in recent days.
Mumbai Attack Undermines India’s Political, Economic Confidence
(Bloomberg) The Mumbai attacks that took the lives of at least 195 people pose an enormous political challenge to the Congress Party-led coalition government, which is obliged to call a national election by May. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh yesterday replaced Home Minister Shivraj Patil after the rival Bharatiya Janata Party took aim with quarter-page newspaper ads showing blood splattered on a wall and proclaiming “Weak Government.”
Cabinet Minister Resigns in Wake of India Attacks
… The Bush administration, hoping to defuse the possibility of hostilities, announced it was sending Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to India this week “to stand in solidarity with the people of India as we all work together to hold these extremists accountable.”
Top Indian officials have suggested that groups based in Pakistan had some involvement in the attacks, but the officials have not explicitly blamed the Pakistan government. The options on the table for responding, officials and analysts said, range from the suspension of diplomatic relations to the most extreme and least likely, a cross-border raid into Pakistan against suspected training camps for militants.
Strategic Motivations for the Mumbai Attack
(Stratfor) By staging an attack the Indian government can’t ignore, the Mumbai attackers have set in motion an existential crisis for Pakistan. The reality of Pakistan cannot be transformed, trapped as the country is between the United States and India. Almost every evolution from this point forward benefits Islamists. Strategically, the attack on Mumbai was a precise blow struck to achieve uncertain but favorable political outcomes for the Islamists.

MUMBAI MAYHEM - THE INTERNATIONAL REPERCUSSIONS
Even if the identification of the dead jehadis involved in the Mumbai terror in the last week of November 2008 had not revealed their Pakistan background and even if one of them had not been captured alive to reveal the provenance of the attack there would have been little doubt that Pakistan ISI had a hand in the affair. Whether the highest circles had knowledge of it or whether it were the rogue elements of the Inter Services Intelligence who were behind it is not the point at issue. The deep involvement of any number of rogue elements of the Pakistan military and the ISI, who are not amenable to control of the government, has always been suspected in most incidents of this nature - be they in India or elsewhere. Were the authorities in Islamabad serious it would not be an impossible task for the military top brass to weed out these elements. It suited General Musharraf to exercise duplicity in this regard for the best part of his tenure. The present Army top brass, if not equally duplicitous, is happy to look the other way. However, this time around they might have painted themselves into a corner. Let us examine the implications for the international community.
The world at large is surprised that every time India is hit very hard through what it refers to as cross border terrorism, it is unable to undertake even limited action against the Islamist organisations involved from Pakistan soil because the Western think tanks and defence anlaysts routinely start warning India that Pakistan is a nuclear weapon state - thus forcing further caution on an already pusillanimous polity. Almost immediately many retired and serving generals in Pakistan take up the cry that a riposte from India could lead to nuclear escalation. India is cautious because until very recently the superpower invariably saw things through the Pakistani lenses. Ditto on the part of their British allies. The European Union at times saw things differently, but chose to remain silent and take the cue from the Anglo-American predominants in the region. Furthermore, China kept upgrading Pakistan’s nuclear and missile capability. Much to the dismay of the people of India, the government was invariably on the horns of a dilemma. The situation stands radically changed after the recent attacks in Mumbai, because whereas 9/11 was an attack on USA and attacks in Spain, UK and the earlier attacks on India were specific to the countries attacked, this time around the Mumbai attacks, earlier in the week, were clearly and unambiguously targetted on the international community, for evidently the most famous hotel in the world, The Taj of Bombay as also the Oberoi Hotel were invariably filled with foreign guests. Americans, British and Jewish nationals were being singled out with clear design. Many were killed, some of them in a barbarous manner. India is once again wavering in its response to the Pakistan-abetted outrage, inspite of the clamour from the length and breadth of the country to hit back at Pakistan - for how long can India take these outrages supinely without being dismissed as a non-player on the global stage. A country that cannot protect itself from its much smaller and weaker neighbours has, ipso facto, no role to play on the global stage.The point at issue is much too serious and the ramifications reverberate well beyond Indian shores.
To date the world was afraid of Pakistani nukes falling into the hands of the radical elements fast gaining ground in Pakistan and physically holding large tracts under their control, having moved out far beyond their traditional strongholds. Now informed opinion is veering around to the greater danger at the hands of Pakistan generals, the present custodians of the nuclear capability of that nation. Their nuclear sabre-rattling, often at the drop of a hat, may one day get out of hand, because of the very strong radically-minded sympathisers within the armed forces and the intelligence services. Therefore, the point at issue is whether the world is ready to countenance a nuclear exchange that could bring disaster to the world at large, simply because India in the face of grave and unending provocations chose to undertake a limited retaliation against jehadist pockets. Apparently, the Pakistan military is indulging in nuclear brinkmanship and hence represents potentially a greater threat than the Islamists as the custodians of nuclear weapons. Let there be no doubt. The events of November 2008 in Mumbai of the last few days were a dress rehearsal for attacks on other shores. The same logic would apply to those having a more robust ability and resolve than India to retaliate agasinst further outrages coming from elements based in Pakistan. Pakistan has the nukes and the delivery potential to hit US assets in many parts of Asia, and several European nations for good measure. Therefore, the foremost task before the NATO nations is to de-nuclearise Pakistan at the earliest, whatever the methodology adapted to do so.
Regrettably, the US establishment has been following a mistaken strategy in Pakistan in the support provided to the Pakistan military establishment. The biggest threat to Pakistan now is internal. The jehadis have the potential - demonstrated on several occasions - to fight the Pakistan Army to a standstill, at least in the western redoubts. The answer for the Pakistanis is to send in the army in much larger numbers - boots on the ground. They can afford to do so, because they are not short of manpower - having  a very large army - that not being the case with US and NATO forces operating in Afghanistan. Yet, short-sightedly the Americans till very recently kept supplying the Pakistan with sophisticated fighter aircraft and the like, which are no substitute for hand-to-hand fighting in the FATA and adjacent areas of Pakistan, now virtually under radical control. The Pakistan Army constantly shies away from ground fighting with requisite force and ends up bombing the radicals, mostly civilians in Swat and the adjacent regions. The kills reported are wildly exaggerated as there is no indpendent verification and the Islamists gain ground. Therefore, the US has to stop supply of sopphisticated weaponry to Pakistan at the earliest, well before the new administration is obliged to change course. Sooner, rather than later these very same weapons could well be turned against erstwhile allies, who were allies only for public consumption - giving support with one hand and supporting the enemies with the other. Major General Vinod Saighal
30 November
Captured terrorist’s account of Mumbai massacre reveals plan was to kill 5,000
The only terrorist captured alive after the Mumbai massacre has given police the first full account of the extraordinary events that led to it – revealing he was ordered to ‘kill until the last breath’.
29 November
A Day of Reckoning as India Toll Tops 170
(NYT) Tensions were high, as well, between India and Pakistan, where officials insisted that their government had nothing to do with assisting the attackers and promised that they would act swiftly if any connection was found within their country.
Perhaps the most troubling question to emerge Saturday for the Indian authorities was how, if official estimates are accurate, just 10 gunmen could have caused so much carnage and repelled Indian police officers, paramilitary forces and soldiers for more than three days in three different buildings. BBC ; Al Jazeera; What They Hate About Mumbai

28 November
U.S. Intelligence Focuses on Pakistani Group
American intelligence and counterterrorism officials said Friday that there was mounting evidence that a Pakistani militant group based in Kashmir, most likely Lashkar-e-Taiba, was responsible for this week’s deadly attacks in Mumbai.
Even as terrorists put up stiff resistance in Mumbai, India weighs its response
(Economist) India’s government was quick to suspect that the attackers hailed from Pakistan, assisted perhaps by aggrieved locals. The interrogation of one captured assailant should give authorities some answers. If the link is proven, India may blame jihadist groups outside the control of Pakistan’s authorities. Less charitable conclusions are also possible. India suspects that elements of Pakistan’s intelligence services are intent on stirring up trouble in the country. The head of Pakistan’s largest spy group, the Inter-Services Intelligence, has been invited to Delhi to explain himself.
27 November
India under attack
A terrorist onslaught of stunning scope and horror
Attacks by bands of gunmen on numerous targets, instead of the mere laying of bombs, and the seizure of so many hostages, led to speculation, unsupported by evidence, that local militants in India could not have mounted the attacks without considerable foreign help. And the targets chosen—world-famous hotels and Western tourists—were a new phenomenon for India, despite being a pattern familiar from attacks directed or inspired by al-Qaeda elsewhere in the world. More from BBC

Harare diary: Ups and downs of 2008
(BBC) … a professional living and working in Zimbabwe’s capital, Harare, has been writing a diary throughout the year, describing her struggle to survive in a country with an economy in freefall. Here, we look back at the frustrating lows and the one euphoric high of an eventful year, marked by controversial elections.
27 December
White Farmers Confront Mugabe in a Legal Battle
… the tribunal’s recent ruling, in favor of the white farmers, is also a milestone of particular relevance to Zimbabwe. It suggests that a growing number of influential Africans — among them religious leaders and now jurists — are confronting Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s 84-year-old liberation hero and president, for his government’s violations of human rights and the rule of law, even as most regional heads of state continue to resist taking harsher steps to isolate his government.
19 December
Mugabe insists ‘Zimbabwe is mine’
(BBC) Zimbabwe is currently gripped by economic collapse and a cholera epidemic. The UN on Thursday reported that the death toll from the disease had risen to 1,123 and that 20,896 people had been infected.
11 December
Africans, Europeans and Americans must together rescue a dying country
(The Economist) In July a UN Security Council resolution to impose targeted sanctions (travel bans and asset freezes) against Mr Mugabe and his acolytes was blocked by China and Russia, with South Africa also dissenting, on the ground that Zimbabwe posed no threat to international stability. The blocking duo can hardly still argue that case with a straight face. Moreover, Zimbabwe is close to meeting the criteria for invoking the declaration endorsed at the UN in 2005 that there is an international “responsibility to protect” people facing, among other things, crimes against humanity. A group of peacemakers known as “the Elders”, including Jimmy Carter, a former American president, and Kofi Annan, the UN’s former head, having been refused entry into Zimbabwe, may help to push the issue up the UN’s agenda. Though Mr Mugabe would try to resist such a move, Mr Annan is quietly standing by to assume the mediator’s job in place of Mr Mbeki, an appointment devoutly to be wished.
Cholera Is Raging, Despite Denial by Mugabe
The outbreak is yet more evidence that Zimbabwe’s most fundamental public services — including water and sanitation, public schools and hospitals — are shutting down, much like the organs of a severely dehydrated cholera victim. [Mr Mugabe] even declared Thursday that the nation’s cholera epidemic had ended, just a day after the World Health Organization warned that the outbreak was grave enough to carry “serious regional implications.”
6 December
UN forced to cut food aid to Zimbabwe’s starving people
Half a million will go without emergency handouts this month, and more will be hungry in January. Meanwhile, Gordon Brown says it’s time to tell Mugabe ‘enough is enough’
When it looks as if things cannot possibly get worse, they do
Zimbabwe’s two main rival parties agreed to a constitutional amendment that would provide for the opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, to become prime minister, with Robert Mugabe remaining president. But other unresolved issues still prevent a unity government from emerging. Meanwhile cholera swept the country. The government declared a national emergency and appealed for international help. See article
Mugabe rejects recommendation for unity government
Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe announced his intention to form a cabinet “as soon as possible” in defiance of a recommendation by southern African leaders that he form a unity government by sharing control of the Home Affairs Ministry with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change. The MDC, which also rejected the proposal as contrary to an earlier agreement to allocate 16 of 31 cabinet seats to the opposition, responded with calls for a boycott. Analysts suggest intervention by the UN or African Union may be necessary to break the impasse. The Washington Post (11/11) 

Talks in Zimbabwe fail as Tsvangirai refuses compromise on police
Power-sharing talks in Zimbabwe failed after Prime Minister-elect Morgan Tsvangirai refused to submit to pressure from regional leaders to agree to share authority with President Robert Mugabe over the nation’s security and police forces. Los Angeles Times (free registration) (11/10) , The Guardian (London)
12 October
Mbeki to arbitrate in Zimbabwe as Mugabe threatens unilateral cabinet
The power-sharing arrangement that brought tentative political stability to Zimbabwe was threatened as President Robert Mugabe declared that his political party would appoint the heads of all the cabinet ministries, including military and police. Financial Times (10/12) , The Guardian (London) (10/13) , BBC
9 October
Zimbabwe inflation up to 231 million percent
Despite the announcement of a power-sharing agreement between opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai and President Robert Mugabe, ostensibly ending the political stalemate driving inflation and economic insecurity in Zimbabwe, inflation rose from 11.2 million percent to 231 million percent in July. The World Bank has categorized Zimbabwe’s as the fastest shrinking economy of any country not at war. Mail & Guardian (South Africa)/Reuters (10/9)
11 September
Dare we hope? We have seen too many similar stories.
Peace Deal Reached in Zimbabwe
The power-sharing talks have aimed to resolve the political crisis, but Mr. Tsvangirai offered no immediate details about how they settled the issue that has bedeviled them: Mr. Mugabe’s refusal to share the supreme authority he has wielded over the southern African nation for the past 28 years. More from Reuters
Resourceful Zimbabweans fighting hunger
Hunger in Zimbabwe — the result of economic collapse in the face of political stalemate — is driving citizens to forage for food. Some are living off of tree roots and porridges, while others have contracted exotic diseases from eating fruits indiscriminately. TIME
August 25
“Mugabe is drawing lines in the sand, challenging the MDC. If the MDC remain united in the face of the new threats, they will still have a chance to stop Mugabe playing with the nation’s life.” University of Zimbabwe professor John Makumbe. Read the full story
August 22
Mugabe takes generals’ advice and abandons deal
Robert Mugabe has abandoned a negotiated solution to the Zimbabwean crisis at the behest of the generals who prop him up, sources have told The Independent.
Day of the Crocodile
By Peter Godwin
(Vanity Fair September 2008) Zimbabwe’s longtime ruler, Robert Mugabe, made a brutal sham of recent elections, after banning Western journalists. The author, a native, reports from the inside on Mugabe’s campaign of terror—and the extraordinary courage of those who’ve confronted “The Fear”.
August 14
(The Economist) Talks on power-sharing in Zimbabwe between President Robert Mugabe and opposition leaders Morgan Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara, mediated by South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki, appeared to stall. One of the sticking points (Surprise!) was how much power a new prime minister, most likely to be Mr Tsvangirai, would have in a new administration if Mr Mugabe stayed on as president. See article
August 12
HARARE (Reuters) - Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe agreed a power-sharing deal with a breakaway opposition faction on Tuesday, but has yet to agree with main rival Morgan Tsvangirai, South African President Thabo Mbeki said. BBC reports ‘no deal’
August 8
Mbeki to meet Zimbabwe political leaders
HARARE (Reuters) - South African President Thabo Mbeki, mediating in Zimbabwe’s post-election crisis, will go to Harare on Saturday amid growing optimism a power-sharing deal can be reached between the ruling party and the opposition.
August 1
Harare diary: No more trillionaires
“At midnight, my bank stripped me of my trillionaire status - the Z$5 trillion sitting in my account became Z$500.”
July 28
Zimbabwe to lop zeroes off currency
By Tom Burgis in Johannesburg and Tony Hawkins in Harare
(FT) Zimbabwe’s economy is unravelling at such a pace that the central bank is set to slash yet more zeroes from the country’s increasingly worthless currency.
State media on Sunday quoted Gideon Gono, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe governor and one of the members of the ruling elite targeted by fresh western sanctions last week, as saying he would extend a currency policy that has so far failed to stem hyperinflation.
July 24
Zimbabwe: Government Panics Over Failure to Pay Military And Police
(allAfrica.com) The government is reported to have run out of paper to print money and is believed to be panicking over how to pay salaries for civil servants, especially soldiers and police who are the backbone of the Mugabe dictatorship.
Giesecke & Devrient, the European company that was providing the paper, was last month pressured to cut supplies by the German government. In addition, a company that provides the software licences for the design and printing of the banknotes, is reported to be considering withdrawing their contract.
July 23
How seriously, or not, to take talks between Zimbabwe’s rival claimants to the presidency
(The Economist) … Nor will talks be easy given the ongoing repression in Zimbabwe. In the past few months alone over 120 opposition activists have been killed and thousands arrested. The opposition says that 200,000 people have fled the violence. The lead negotiator for Mr Tsvangirai’s side, Tendai Biti, is facing treason charges and is out on bail. Mr Tsvangirai has been denied a new passport, so cannot travel. Mr Mutambara is also on bail—arrested and charged for daring to write an editorial that was critical of Mr Mugabe.
July 12
2 Vetoes Quash U.N. Sanctions on Zimbabwe
UNITED NATIONS — An American-led effort to impose sanctions against Zimbabwe failed in the Security Council on Friday, with Russia and China exercising a rare double veto to quash a resolution that they said represented excessive interference in the country’s domestic matters.
The United States, having earlier in the week mustered the nine votes needed to pass the sanctions, stalled on bringing the resolution to a vote until it became absolutely clear that Russia was determined to stop it. Once the Russians announced on Friday that they would exercise their veto, the Chinese, often leery of taking a lone stand on delicate human rights issues, followed suit.
July 10
Global net closes on Mugabe’s gang
By Daniel Howden
The net was tightening last night around the leading figures in the Mugabe regime as the United Nations identified the key individuals it blames for the current crisis in Zimbabwe.
A draft UN resolution named Robert Mugabe and 13 of his henchmen as the main culprits behind the campaign of violence in which scores of opposition supporters have been raped and murdered, and hopes of democratic salvation for the southern African nation have been wrecked.
July 9
UN Security Council nations move toward sanctions against Zimbabwe
Though a veto by China or Russia has not been ruled out, an effort to impose sanctions on Zimbabwe under Robert Mugabe’s regime has found the support of the majority of nations on the UN Security Council. Financial Times (7/9) , The Guardian (London) (7/9)
July 8
Bush Pushes Hard Line on Zimbabwe at G-8
The leaders of seven African countries and eight industrialized nations emerged divided after three hours of closed-door meetings dominated by the crisis in Zimbabwe. President Jakaya Kikwete of Tanzania, suggested that a power-sharing agreement was the answer.
Addressing Mr. Bush, he said: “We understand your concerns, but I want to assure you that the concerns you have expressed are indeed the concerns of many of us on the African continent. The only area that we may differ on is the way forward.”
July 7
Zimbabwe sanctions could lead to civil war, Mbeki warns [G8] leaders
· Bush losing patience with South African diplomacy
· Opposition activist’s body found tortured and burnt
South African peace plan for Zimbabwe welcomed by MDC
The proposals suggest Thabo Mbeki has recognised Morgan Tsvangirai’s claim to government
South Africa’s president, Thabo Mbeki, has presented a plan to Zimbabwe’s political leaders that would allow Robert Mugabe to remain as a titular head of state but surrender real power to the opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, who would serve as prime minister until a new constitution was negotiated and fresh elections held.
July 5
UK is sending 11,000 Mugabe refugees back
Zimbabweans who fl